Thursday, December 15, 2011

MILLIONAIRE'S ISLAND: A Simple Example Of ... - Business Insider

Image: wikipedia commons

An unspoiled wilderness with no poor people. Paradise!

As everyone in this country keeps blaming everyone else for our high unemployment rate, one assertion gets repeated so often that it is now regarded as fact:

Rich people create jobs.

Specifically, the argument goes, entrepreneurs and investors create jobs.

So if we want to create more jobs, the argument continues, we need to cut taxes on entrepreneurs and investors--to increase their incentive to create jobs.

Now, I'm an entrepreneur, and Business Insider employs about 75 people, up from zero four years ago. So if this assertion were true, I'd happily espouse it. It would make me feel great, believing that I had created all those jobs. And it would make me feel perfectly justified in paying historically low tax rates. (After all, I created these jobs!).

Unfortunately, as I explained in detail here, this assertion is wrong: Entrepreneurs and investors actually don't create jobs, at least not by themselves. What creates jobs is a healthy economic ecosystem, of which entrepreneurs and investors are only parts.? The more important part of the job-creation engine is a huge base of people and companies with plentiful disposable income. Specifically, millions upon millions of customers with money to spend.

Without our generous readers and sponsors and dedicated team, all the jobs I "created" at BI would immediately cease to exist (including mine). I'm patient and determined, but I'm not Sisyphus. And our investors are good people, but they're also, justifiably, impatient (they, too, have clients to serve and jobs to keep). And I certainly couldn't produce BI by myself. So if BI hadn't quickly gained traction with readers and sponsors and hired a great team, my investors and I would have switched the lights off. And all those jobs would have gone "poof."

Without healthy customers, in other words, entrepreneurs and investors can create prototypes, or do R&D, but they can't create self-sustaining jobs.? To create self-sustaining jobs, companies need to sell their products and services into a marketplace that 1) wants them, and 2) can afford them. The marketplace also needs laws, law-enforcement, property rights, transportation systems, resources, rules, and other attributes of healthy free-market economies that help companies and society function. Without all those things, entrepreneurs and investors can't create jack.

To illustrate this, let's run through a simple example. Let's create a fictional economy called "Millionaire's Island..."

MILLIONAIRE'S ISLAND

Let's assume that, before we get there, Millionaire's Island is an unspoiled wilderness. And let's start our experiment by picking up "the 1%"--the Americans in the top-percentile of wage earners--and putting them all on the island.

Let's allow the 1% to take their savings with them. So some of these folks will arrive with enormous wealth, and others will have very modest means. The island's residents will also be a highly skilled and educated bunch: Most of the 1% are doctors, lawyers, bankers, business-owners, hedge-fund managers, and so on.

In 2010, there were about 1.4 million one-percenters in the U.S., and they each made a minimum of $380,000 a year. So our island's population will be the size of a mid-sized American city. And the total wealth on the island will amount to one-third of the wealth of the entire United States.

(That's how much of the wealth the top 1% of the country owns--see chart at right).

What will happen?

Well, first there will be a massive grab for all of the island's resources. This will probably lead to years of violence and wars, in which many of the island's new residents will be killed off.

(Such is life without property rights.)

But maybe, to skip this step, we can keep our property rights and just peacefully divide the island's resources upon arrival--say, according to net worth. In this case the super-rich 0.1% would end up owning the vast majority of the island and the rest of the 1% would end up with some scraps.

Provided the 1% don't kill each other off dividing up resources, the island will then progress to the next phase of economic development: The rush to satisfy basic needs.

These needs would include:

  • Food
  • Clothes
  • Shelter
  • Basic services (health, legal, banking, plumbing, construction, garbage disposal, tailoring, cooking, dry-cleaning, cleaning, undertaking, etc.)
  • Government (including police and judicial system)

(Yes, we'll need some government. Given how much so many people seem to hate government, however, we'll keep government small and fund it with a simple, low, "fair" flat tax. That will let the super-rich keep more of their earnings than they currently do--and, thus, according to the theory, have an incentive to create more jobs.)

Image: wikipedia

Better hope he doesn't get his monopolistic mitts on the food supply.

Now, if the island's economy is closed--no imports or exports--most of the people on the island will probably soon die of starvation, because 1.4 million people can't immediately feed themselves without a fully developed agriculture system. But let's pretend that there's a food source that will keep everyone alive indefinitely and that control of this food source does not fall into the hands of a greedy monopolist who can charge, say, $1 million for a banana.

(If a billionaire were starving and there was nothing else to eat, the billionaire might just pay $1 million for a banana. As a result, the food monopolist would quickly amass all the wealth on the island. And the monopolist would enjoy this wealth right up until the time the rest of the island stormed his mansion, chopped off his head, and redistributed his property. It is true that "life is not fair"--another mantra that is often used to justify the extreme inequality that has developed in the U.S. in the past 30 years--but there's only so much inequality society can take.).

So let's say the island's food needs are taken care of. Then it's on to the other basic necessities.

Among the island's residents will be lots wealthy entrepreneurs and investors, many of whom made it into the 1% by selling companies or investing money. And there will also be "poor" entrepreneurs who are willing to take more risk in the hope of getting rich.

These entrepreneurs and investors will start founding and funding companies. These new companies will hire some of the island's other residents to provide their products and services. And the jobs for these residents (and the entrepreneurs) will be self-sustaining--as long as the employees are paid enough to buy basic necessities from other companies.

If the employees are not paid living wages--if, instead, all the entrepreneurs and investors try to maximize every cent of profit by paying employees as little as possible--the new jobs will not be self-sustaining.

Why not?

Better hope this doesn't happen on Millionaire's Island--the economy will eventually collapse. Click for more on inequality >

Because as soon as the less-wealthy people on the island run through their savings, the money to pay for basic necessities will disappear. The new companies that had been formed to provide houses, clothes, services, and so forth will go bust, and all the jobs will disappear (no customers = no companies = no jobs). The economy will collapse, and the island will be thrown into anarchy.

Importantly, this collapse will happen even if the wealth of the island as a whole still adds up to trillions. If the wealth and income is concentrated only in the hands of a privileged few, there will be no money for the less privileged to pay for any products and services produced by these few. Thus, there will be no point in the rich people producing any products and services beyond what they need to feed and clothe themselves (because no one will be able to buy the products and services). And, therefore, there will be very few jobs.

(The super-rich will probably have to throw everyone else a bone and give them means to clothe and house themselves or risk getting their heads chopped off, but this bone could take the form of indentured servitude. But the economy would not grow, and products and services would not improve. Instead, the super-rich would just sit on their money, which, most certainly would not "trickle down.")

So this is the first example of why it is silly to think that "entrepreneurs and investors" create the jobs in our economy. Entrepreneurs and investors start and fund companies, which is important. But what actually creates self-sustaining jobs and a growing economy is customers who want and can pay for companies' products and services. Without these customers, there's no job creation.

And what, in a healthy economy, enables customers to pay for products and services? The customers' own jobs--jobs that pay the customers enough to be able to afford to buy products and services.

[Before moving on to a final point, we should note an amusing side-effect of the economy on Millionaire's Island. To provide for its population's basic necessities, our island economy will create the need for a lot of jobs that the 1% aren't used to doing.

Specifically, a bunch of the folks who were making, say, $1 million a year as bankers or lawyers prior to moving to the island would have no choice but to become construction workers or sewer cleaners or undertakers or firemen, because otherwise those jobs just won't get done. The good news for these former bankers will be that, since no one on the island will want or know how to do those jobs, they'll probably be able to charge immense amounts for doing them. So as they're pumping crap out of a billionaire's cesspool, the former bankers will be able to take comfort in the fact that they're being paid millions to do it. At least until another former banker comes along who does it for less. Which probably won't take long.

Also amusing will be the fact that there will be an absolute glut of banking, legal, doctoring, and investing talent on the island, which should drive the price and compensation for these services to the floor. So the 1% will get a taste of what it's like to have their skill-sets and professions become so commoditized that they can't make a living doing them anymore. They might even have to sign up for re-training programs!]

Anyway, the satisfaction of basic needs will create a lot of jobs in our island economy.? And as long as the island's employers pay their employees enough to live on and save something, everything will be fine.

So, what will happen once the basic needs have been met?

Companies will be founded that do more than satisfy basic needs.

The new companies will produce products that people want, but don't necessarily need.

Like iPads.

Image: Mogulite

An amazing genius. But not a job creator.

Steve Jobs, the inventor of the iPad, has been heralded as an amazing job-creator in our own economy, because some 60,000 people now work at Apple making products like the iPad. But did Steve Jobs really singlehandedly create all those jobs? Of course not. If there hadn't been hundreds of millions of people on the planet with enough disposable income to buy iPhones and iPads, Apple wouldn't have been able to sell them. What created Apple's jobs was the combination of products that people wanted and people who could afford to pay for them.

But maybe among the island companies founded by the entrepreneurs and investors, there will be an island Apple, Inc. And this Apple will make products that are so magical and amazing that everyone will immediately want them.

And how many jobs will this island Apple create?

It depends on how many of the island's residents can afford to buy the iPads after taking care of their more pressing needs.

If everyone on the island has enough income to afford an iPad after paying for food, shelter, and clothes, then the island Apple Inc. might sell 1.4 million iPads (one per person). And that level of demand for iPads would create a lot of jobs making, distributing, selling, and servicing iPads--jobs that would last as long as the demand for the iPads lasted.

But what if the island's income and resources were not so equally distributed?

What if, instead of everyone on the island having enough disposable income to buy an iPad, only, say, 25% of the island's residents had enough disposable income to afford an iPad?

Unfortunately, you can't eat it.

(This, by the way, is probably a reasonable estimate of the percentage of American households that could afford to buy an iPad. About 25% of American taxpayers make more than $67,000 a year. And by the time you get through with food, clothes, shelter, utilities, transportation, taxes, et al, you probably couldn't afford iPads for everyone in the family on much less than that).

If only 25% of the island's residents could afford to buy iPads, then the island Apple could only sell about 350,000 of them. And that would create a lot fewer jobs than the production, sales, and service of 1.4 million iPads.

And this gets to the important point.

The iPad is the same.

But the number of jobs created by the iPad is different depending on the number of customers who want and can afford to buy it.

So, again, crediting the entrepreneurs and investors who created the iPad with singlehandedly "creating jobs" is unfair to every other participant in the economy. It's the overall health of the ecosystem--the combination of entrepreneurs, investors, laws, law-enforcement, transportation, and, most of all, wide distribution of wealth--that creates the jobs, not entrepreneurs and investors.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY

Yes, life is not fair. Yes, some people will always have more and others will always have less. Yes, capitalism is the best economic system in the world. Yes, entrepreneurs and investors are an important part of the economic job-creation engine.

But the moral of the story is that we're all in this together.

Our jobs are not created by a special, privileged handful of rich people (entrepreneurs and investors), much less a handful of rich people who have to be even better incentivized if our economy is to get back on track. Our jobs are created and sustained by the amazing economic ecosystem in which we all have the privilege and good fortune of existing.

If we continue to concentrate the wealth of this ecosystem in the hands of fewer and fewer participants, the health of the ecosystem will not improve. On the contrary, it will deteriorate further.

We do not need to further incentivize entrepreneurs and investors to start companies--they already have plenty of incentives to do so.

What we do need to do is find ways to give our vast middle class more purchasing power again.

What are some of those ways?

Well, modestly shifting the tax burden toward rich people would help. (Modestly, not wildly. No one sensible is talking about raising top bracket income tax rates back to 70%-90% again. We can start by just nudging the top bracket back to, say, 39%, and raising taxes on dividends and capital gains).

Reducing household debts through mortgage restructurings would also help.

And so would rebuilding our manufacturing base.

And so would doing something that could be accomplished outside of government influence: Companies could voluntarily reduce their profit margins and pay people more.

Wait, what?

Yes. Instead of continuing to increase their profit margins above today's already record levels, companies could decide to shift their emphasis from "serving customers and increasing shareholder value" to "serving customers and increasing shareholder value and providing a good living to as many employees as they can.

Wow, that last one sounds crazy. But it isn't. Our companies have become so phenomenally profitable and efficient that wages in our economy recently hit an all-time low as a percentage of GDP (see chart above). Perhaps it's time our companies started voluntarily sharing more of the vast wealth they have created with? their employees.

SEE ALSO:
Finally, A Rich American Destroys The Myth That Rich People Create Jobs
23 Mind-Blowing Facts About Income Inequality In America

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Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/millionaires-island-2011-12

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Thursday, October 13, 2011

Horse Online Games Basketball | Equine Supply Direct

Horse Online Games Basketball
Horse Online Games Basketball

Horse racing is a very competitive sport. Race horses are athletes at the peak of their physical perfection. It takes a lot of training to get them ready for race day. One of the most enjoyable aspects of horse racing is watching these beautiful animals doing what they do best. Horses have such beautiful gaits. The way they carry themselves when their strides are fully extended is one of the most beautiful sights I've ever seen.

Imagine horses racing at speeds of 40 miles an hour with 130 pounds on their back while competing with other horses to win the horse race. What makes this sport so beautiful compared to other sports (football, baseball, basketball, hockey or golf) is that in no other sport is the athlete required to exert so much energy and effort for such a period of time. Horse racing requires these magnificent animals to carry weights, including the jockey, and in some cases above 130 pounds at speeds of approximately 40 miles per hour.

I have watched many so-called professional gamblers or individuals who love to bet on horses and follow the racing circuit everywhere. These individuals, so-called professional handicappers, try to make a living on betting, wagering and picking winners. Events like the Kentucky Derby that takes place the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs are places where you will see hoards of people gathering to see the best of horses compete with each other.

Thoroughbred race horses are the fastest breed of horses. They say you can determine a champion race horse by looking in his eyes. These race horses will show expressions of strength and dominance. You'll find free horse racing videos on horses competing in the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown taking place at Pamlico Racetrack each year two weeks after the Kentucky Derby on the internet.

Such a competitive game can also be played online through online horse racing games readily available on the internet. You can download free horse racing games and sit back and enjoy watching the best horses like Zenyatta and Sir Barton run for the finish line in the best of Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby. You can breed thoroughbred horses and train them the way you want virtually. 3d horse racing games will keep you hooked onto your seats. These virtual horses will teach you a lot of things about the real world of racing.

About the Author

To know more about horse racing videos and online horse racing games log on to horseracegame.com. Writing is my hobby and I like to write on anything that I feel people would like to read about. Writing articles has always interested me and I can write on anything that I feel interesting. I like to write on new adventures topics like inventions, sports and games.

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Source: http://www.equinesupplydirect.net/horse-online-games-basketball/

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

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Tony G Considering Legal Action Against Alderney Gambling ...

Legal Action versus AGCC

On Tuesday, Antanas ?Tony G? Guoga announced his intention to pursue legal action against the Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC). Guoga claims the commission was negligent in the handling of the Full Tilt Poker (FTP) situation, failed to exhibit due diligence for their licensees and should be held responsible.

The legal action being considered hinges on the fact that the AGCC knew there was a problem involving player funds prior to the Black Friday indictments, were negligent in their handling of the situation; and therefore, ought to be held responsible.

The AGCC was established in 2000 and is "independent and non-political, and regulates gambling on behalf of the States of Alderney. Consisting of the Chairman and three members, it includes people with international experience in the fields of gaming, regulation and licensing. The single most important policy of the Commission is to provide a regulatory environment that meets the highest international standards and thereby both protects the reputation of Alderney and attracts 'world-class' operations."

According to the AGCC, its mission is "to ensure and maintain the integrity of the electronic gambling industry in Alderney." And its objectives include ensuring that "all electronic gambling on Alderney is conducted honestly and fairly, the funding, management and operation of electronic gambling on Alderney remains free from criminal influence, and electronic gambling is regulated and monitored so as to protect the interests of licensees' customers as well as the young and vulnerable."

?We believe they knew about it a long time ago,? Guoga said in regard to the AGCC, ?That security for the players? money was not there, they hid this fact together with their auditors for years, benefiting in return. We raised it with them and they knew then and there.?

Jon Sykes, CEO of Vont Limited confirmed that "The security statement for the players? money was not there, this was raised with them, and they knew that FTP was in breach of regulations back in December 2010."

Not having a designated clause in FTP?s Terms & Conditions was against AGCC regulations, a fact Tony G and company claim the AGCC ignored for many months, constituting negligence.

FTP did add a statement, regarding player funds, to its site around the end of February or beginning of March 2011, stating they were not segregated: "Customer funds are not segregated from company funds, but it is the intention of Filco Ltd to meet its liabilities as they fall due."

Guoga said: "Surely such a breach of the regulations for such a long period prior to the omission being highlighted to the AGCC by Sykes in late 2010 must have initiated a full review of the operator and its financial position by that stage, which then begs the question, how long did they know about the precarious financial position before they finally pulled the plug following the DOJ indictments? We want to prove that they have responsibility, we are coming after them.?

As Sykes contends:

?It appears likely that this statement was added to the site as a result of my contact and the Commission?s subsequent investigations. Obviously, before the issues with the indictments this was perceived to be more of a minor clerical issue for the Alderney Regulators and FTP but now I wonder if there was more to it.?

Sykes and Vont Limited will manage the claim and are currently in discussions with legal advisers. In addition, it is expected that a channel will be opened for players to join the complaint and submit information regarding their balances, though such specifics have not yet been determined.

Stay up to date on all the latest news by following us on Twitter and liking us on Facebook.

Follow Chad Holloway on Twitter ? @ChadAHolloway

Comments

Source: http://www.pokernews.com/news/2011/10/tony-g-legal-action-alderney-gambling-control-commission-11194.htm

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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Resell SEO To Earn Valuable Extra Income

The Internet is a place that is ripe for businesses to take advantage of. Using the convenience of the Internet, companies can expand their visibility and be more present in places that they never thought they could. The Internet is also an excellent place for marketing. Businesses that use the Internet to market themselves will find that they receive large increases in the amount of business they do. However, due to the complexity of the Internet, marketing must be undertaken in a specific way for it to be as effective as possible. Search engine optimization is one of the most popular of these ways, and if you are looking to earn extra income for your business, you should resell SEO to take advantage of this new and popular form of Internet marketing.

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Source: http://www.strykersorano.com/internet-and-businesses-online/resell-seo-to-earn-valuable-extra-income/

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Unemployed seek protection against job bias (AP)

WASHINGTON ? After two years on the unemployment rolls, Selena Forte thought she'd found a temporary job at a delivery company that matched her qualifications.

But Forte, a 55-year-old from Cleveland, says a recruiter for an employment agency told her she would not be considered for the job because she had been out of work too long. She had lost her job driving a bus.

"They didn't even want to hear about my experience," said Forte. "It didn't make sense. You're always told just go out there and get a job."

Forte, scraping by now as a part time substitute school bus driver, is part of a growing number of unemployed or underemployed Americans who complain they are being screened out of job openings for the very reason they're looking for work in the first place. Some companies and job agencies prefer applicants who already have jobs, or haven't been jobless too long.

She could get help from a provision in President Barack Obama's jobs bill, which would ban companies with 15 or more employees from refusing to consider ? or offer a job to ? someone who is unemployed. The measure also applies to employment agencies and would prohibit want ads that disqualify applicants just because they are unemployed.

But Obama's bill faces a troubled path in Congress, as Republicans strongly oppose its plans for tax increases on the wealthy and other spending provisions. Should the bill fail, Democrats are sure to remind jobless voters that the GOP blocked an attempt to redress discrimination against them at a time when work is so hard to find.

The effort to protect the unemployed has drawn praise from workers' rights advocates, but business groups say it will just stir up needless litigation by frustrated job applicants. The provision would give those claiming discrimination a right to sue, and violators would face fines of up to $1,000 per day, plus attorney fees and costs.

"Threatening business owners with new lawsuits is not going to help create jobs and will probably have a chilling effect on hiring," said Cynthia Magnuson, spokeswoman for the National Federation of Independent Business. "Business owners may be concerned about posting a new job if they could face a possible lawsuit."

A survey earlier this year by the National Employment Law Project found more than 150 job postings on employment Web sites such as CareerBuilder.com and Monster.com requiring that applicants "must be currently employed" or using other exclusionary language based on current employment status.

"It's really alarming to us that employers continue to ignore the strong public condemnation of this practice," said Maurice Emsellem, the legal group's policy co-director.

The issue has gained more prominence as the unemployment level remains stuck over 9 percent and a record 4.5 million people ? nearly one-third of the unemployed ? have been out of work for a year or more. And older workers, like Forte, often struggle to find new jobs.

"There's a flood of workers looking for jobs right now and unfortunately, this is a convenient way to streamline the process" by employers, Emsellem said. Some companies might assume people who have been out of work for several months may not be stellar performers, he said.

The practice has also drawn concern from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, where members at a hearing earlier this year said barring unemployed people from employment may have a greater effect on blacks and Hispanics with higher jobless rates.

Ron Cooper, a former commission general counsel during the Bush administration now in private practice, said he thinks the problem is being overblown.

"People, I'm sure, are looking for shortcuts to trim the applicant pool that they're looking at," Cooper said. "But I've never heard of this as a top-shelf criteria for people making those decisions."

Forte says she had sought a job at FedEx through the agency Kelly Services, where she said a recruiter told her the company was not considering applicants who have been out of work longer than six months. "Here I am, a seasoned worker. I didn't have six months, but I had eight years of experience," she said.

Jane Stehney, a Kelly spokeswoman, said the company does not discriminate on any basis, including unemployment status. And Sally Davenport, a spokeswoman for FedEx in Memphis, said her company has no policy barring the unemployed from seeking a job and never instructed the temp agency to discriminate

"We interview and hire the candidates best qualified for the job," she said. "There was obviously confusion on the part of the temp agency."

Last month, the job search Web site Indeed.com announced it would not accept any job ad that seeks to exclude the unemployed.

"Our policy is to exclude job listings that do not comply with federal or local laws related to discriminatory hiring practices as well as job listings that discriminate against the unemployed," said Indeed.com spokeswoman Sophie Beaurpere.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who has sponsored a separate bill protecting the unemployed, said he understands that employers need the right to hire according to their needs and to factor in work experience.

"But they shouldn't have the right to discriminate from the start and preemptively deny qualified workers a fair chance at a job they need," Brown said.

___

Follow Sam Hananel on Twitter at http://twitter.com/shananel

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/us/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111009/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_unemployment_bias

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Monday, October 10, 2011

Neutrinos spark some crazy scientific leaps

By Alan Boyle

Commentators have been surprisingly fast to point to faster-than-light neutrinos as evidence that scientists could be wrong about lots of things, including the causes of climate change. But the most likely scenario is that special?relativity ??a theory that?contends nothing can be accelerated beyond the speed of light in a vacuum ??will turn out to be right. Or at least relatively right.

Two weeks after the neutrino experiments first came to light, the prevailing view among physicists is that the observations will somehow be shown to be wrong. The time measurements had to be made to an accuracy of billionths of a second. Synchronizing the time signatures over a distance of more than 450 miles of neutrino flight, from the CERN particle-physics?center on the French-Swiss border to?Italy's Gran Sasso National Laboratory,?is extremely challenging.


Nature News cites one paper questioning whether the clock synchronizations accounted for the varying gravitational force as the neutrinos sped through the planet. General relativity's?gravitational time-dilation effect might have reduced the precision of the measurements, Imperial College London's Carlo Contaldi suggested. This wouldn't be the first time that special relativity and general relativity got tangled up with each other: The satellite-based GPS navigation system has to account not only for special relativity (which would make the satellite's clocks look as if they're moving slower?from the perspective of?earthly clocks) but also for general relativity (which would make them seem to move faster).

Other researchers have wondered whether?fluctuations in the composition of the neutrino beam are just making it seem as if some of the particles are flying faster than light, when the effect is actually being caused by those unaccounted-for fluctuations. Nobel laureate Sheldon Glashow and a colleague?at Boston University, Andrew Cohen,?take another tack: They say the OPERA?neutrino beam?doesn't bear the energy signature that it should have if the particles were exceeding the speed of light.

The leaders of the OPERA collaboration, the team that made the neutrino observations, say they've accounted for the factors that have come to light so far, including the clock-synchronization issue. But Physics World reports that?up to?half of the collaboration's members?think it's premature to submit their findings to a scientific journal for formal publication. (So far, the results have been posted only to the?ArXiv.org preprint server.)

While the OPERA physicists continue to double-check and debate their results, researchers?from the U.S.-based MINOS collaboration?are gearing up to do an independent neutrino-timing check. Re-analyzing the existing MINOS data is expected to take up to six months, and if new experiments are required, that could take more than a year. In the meantime, physicists will continue trying to poke holes in the OPERA observations.

Neutrinos on the air
During this week's "Virtually Speaking Science" chat, Caltech theoretical physicist Sean M. Carroll told me that OPERA's results are "almost certainly not true."

"Even the people who did the experiment will tell you that the chances are very, very small that it's right," Carroll said. "They just want people to understand that it's on the table, it's possible. They don't know what's wrong with their experiment. They would like someone else to check it, to duplicate it, to see what might be wrong."

If the observations turn out to be right, the implications would be "incredibly groundbreaking and earth-shattering," he said. But they wouldn't be beyond the power of theorists to explain, even within the framework of relativity.

"This is what we do," Carroll said. "We come up with new theories that fit crazy, unexpected pieces of data like this."

The OPERA experiment has already?given rise to?scores of papers on the ArXiv server, many aimed at explaining why the results aren't as crazy as they look.?If the results hold up, theorists would have to adapt Albert Einstein's special relativity theory to accommodate faster-than-light observations. But Carroll says they wouldn't start from square one.

"We can say with confidence that there is some sense in which Einstein was?right. He might not be the final word, but he wasn't absolutely wrong," he said. "Einstein's theories are not wrong, they've been tested right and left, and there's something right about them. They might need to be improved, they might need to be added to. ... But we're not throwing everything out and starting from scratch."

Some folks have suggested that faster-than-light neutrinos could open the way for backward time travel, reverse causality and other post-Einsteinian weirdness. In fact, folks are already collecting faster-than-light neutrino jokes. Two examples:

  • "Neutrino. Knock-knock."
  • "I wrote a speed-of-light joke ... but a neutrino beat me to it."

Carroll?says that faster-than-light?neutrinos would not necessarily?disrupt causality and the arrow of time, and he explains why in a posting to his blog titled "Can Neutrinos Kill Their Own Grandfathers?"

"It could be true, but it doesn't have to be true. ... Theorists would have a lot of fun figuring out how the world actually works in that case,"?he said.

For an hourlong discussion of faster-than-light research as well as other weird frontiers of physics, including the Nobel-winning studies of our accelerating universe, listen to the full "Virtually Speaking Science" podcasts, either online or as an MP3 download. If you're a resident of the Second Life virtual world, you'll also enjoy Saturday's talk on dark energy, presented at 10 a.m. PT / SLT by the Meta Institute for Computational Astrophysics.

The climate connection
Particle physics?and climate science rarely mix, but they did get mixed up this week in an opinion piece written for The Wall Street Journal by Robert Bryce, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. The essay listed "five obvious truths about the climate-change issue," including this one as No. 5:

"The science is not settled, not by a long shot. Last month, scientists at CERN, the prestigious high-energy physics lab in Switzerland, reported that neutrinos might ? repeat, might ? travel faster than the speed of light. If serious scientists can question Einstein's theory of relativity, then there must be room for debate about the workings and complexities of the Earth's atmosphere."

That argument earned almost instant derision from the science-minded Twitterverse, spawning #WSJscience as a new hashtag. The idea that one weird?experimental?claim proves?that?other, completely unrelated scientific claims are shaky came off as laughable. The classic construction for #WSJscience tweets goes like this: "If serious scientists can question relativity, there must be room to debate [whether Earth goes around sun]." (Hat tip to @cqchoi)

Rather than engaging in an extended rant myself, let me just link to a few of the rants elsewhere on the Web, plus a few?totally serious?articles about the frontiers of physics.

Selected commentaries on #WSJscience:

More faster-than-light speculation:


Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding me to your Google+ circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.

Source: http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/07/8211350-neutrinos-spark-wild-scientific-leaps

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